ISSN 1300-1868
 

Original Research (Original Article) 


The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export

Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, Filiz ELMAS.

Abstract
Short-term foreign capital investment, which started from 1989 and has been in the speculative form, has increased capital inflows leading lower exchange rate (i.e., appreciation of TLs). Thus, the aim of this study is to test of whether changes in FX rate crowds out net export. The argument against government budget deficits is that they crowd out the investment or export sector, by generating upward pressure on interest rates. The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis and the Conventional [Keynesian] Open Economy Hypothesis, (COEH), do not agree on the argument, and thus, researchers have sought to choose between these hypotheses. For the period of 1989.I-2003.VI, the results from the impulse response function presented in this paper support the COEH with the following findings. These results indicate that increasing budget deficits raise real interest rates as the Turkish Treasury bids on domestic funds to finance government budget deficits, which in turn attracts foreign short-term capital and results in an appreciation of the domestic currency. In sum, persistent budget deficits have crowded out investment and net exports, despite the effects of capital inflows, which dampen the interest rate impact of deficits.

Key words: Short Run Capital Movements, Crowding-Out Effect, Interest and Foreign Exchange Regimes



TÜRKİYE’DE FAİZ VE KUR POLİTİKALARININ İHRACAT ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Ozet
Türkiye’de faiz kur makası nedeni ile 1989’da başlayan ve spekülatif nitelikte olan kısa vadeli sermaye girişi döviz arzını artırarak kuru düşürmüş ve ulusal paranın değer kazanmasına yol açmıştır. Bu çalışmada amaç, döviz kurundaki değişmelerin ihracat üzerinde bir dışlama (crowding-out) etkisine neden olup olmadığını test etmektir. Keynesyen açık ekonomi hipotezine göre, büyük miktardaki bütçe açıkları, faiz oranını artırarak, ulusal paranın değer kazanmasına, böylece yatırımlar ve net ihracatı dışlama etkisine sahiptir. Bütçe açıkları, Türkiye’de uzun yıllar boyunca uygulandığı gibi ya yurtdışından yapılan borçlanmalarla, ya da net yurtiçi tasarruflarla finanse edilmiştir. Hazine, bütçe açığını karşılamak amacıyla, mevcut ulusal fonlara daha yüksek oranda ihaleler açarak ulusal faiz oranının artması yönünde bir baskı yaratmıştır. Söz konusu gelişme, bir yandan, özel sektöre akması gereken fonları kamuya aktarmakta diğer yandan da sermaye girişi sağlayarak ulusal paranın değerlenmesine neden olmaktadır. Sayısal analizde, 1989.I-2003.IV dönemi için üçer aylık verilerle VAR (Vektör Oto Regresyon) yöntemi kullanılacaktır. Yapılan test sonuçlarına göre, aşırı değerlenen döviz kurunun (yani, TL’nin aşırı değerlenmesi ile) net ihracatı olumsuz etkilediği, dolayısıyla da ekonomide dışlama etkisi yarattığıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri, Dışlama Etkisi, Faiz ve Kur Politikaları


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2008; 19(69): 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675


Web Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=155937 [Access: August 19, 2019]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2008; 19(69): 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2008), [cited August 19, 2019]; 19(69): 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



Harvard Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS (2008) [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 19 (69), 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



Turabian Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. 2008. [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 19 (69), 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



Chicago Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. "[The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 19 (2008), 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS. "[The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 19.69 (2008), 47-66. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Suleyman DEGIRMEN, Filiz ELMAS (2008) [The Effects of the Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Regimes on the Turkish Export]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 19 (69), 47-66. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10675