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An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey

Burcu BERKE.

Abstract
Real exchange rate is a relative price that keeps the domestic and foreign balance by measuring a country’s foreign competitive structure and provides macroeconomic adaptation. In an economy, current account is no longer equal to the capital account in the presence of capital flows and therefore such flows can affect real exchange rates. Real exchange rate will devaluate when capital flows are weaker and ending this loss becomes dependent on capital movements between countries. While in traditional models capital inflows can create an expansive effect (growth), on the other hand sudden capital outflows in the short term can lead to a recession. Such models demonstrate that capital inflows can cause an expansion of total demand, rapid monetary expansion, inflationist pressure, appreciation of real exchange rate and increased current deficit. This study uses the VAR method to analyse “the impact of volatile capital flows on real exchange rate” in Turkey in the 1994:Q4-2013:Q2 period. After checking the impact of other financial control variables for Turkey, it can be said that volatile capital flows devaluate real exchange rates.

Key words: Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rate, Volatility, Turkey, VAR Analysis. JEL Codes: C50, F20, F31.



Türkiye’de Sermaye Akımlarının Oynaklığı Ekseninde Reel Döviz Kurunun Belirleyicilerinin Bir Analizi

Özet
Reel döviz kuru, bir ülkenin dış rekabetçi yapısını ölçerek iç ve dış dengeyi sağlayan bir nispi fiyattır ve makroekonomik intibakı sağlamaktadır. Ekonomide sermaye akımları mevcut iken, cari hesap artık sermaye hesabına eşit değildir ve böylece, bu akımlar reel döviz kurunu etkileyebilmektedir. Sermaye akımları azaldığında reel döviz kuru değer kaybetmekte ve bu kaybın sona ermesi ise ülkeler arasındaki sermaye hareketlerine bağlı hale gelmektedir. Geleneksel modellerde bir yandan, sermaye girişleri genişletici bir etki (büyüme) yaratabilirken, diğer yandan, kısa dönemde ani sermaye çıkışları resesyona neden olabilmektedir. Bu tür modeller, sermaye girişlerinin, toplam talebin genişlemesine, hızlı parasal genişlemeye, enflasyonist baskılara, reel döviz kurunun değerlenmesine ve artan cari açıklara yol açabildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1994:Q4-2013:Q2 döneminde “sermaye akımlarının oynaklığının reel döviz kuruna etkileri” VAR yöntemi ile incelenmektedir. Türkiye için diğer iktisadi kontrol değişkenlerinin etkileri kontrol edildikten sonra sermaye akımlarının oynaklığında bir artışın reel döviz kurunu değer kaybettirdiği sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Sermaye Akımları, Reel Döviz Kuru, Oynaklık, Türkiye, VAR Analizi. JEL Kodları: C50, F20, F31


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Burcu BERKE. [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



Web Style

Burcu BERKE. [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. www.scopemed.org/?mno=214045 [Access: April 27, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Burcu BERKE. [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Burcu BERKE. [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2016), [cited April 27, 2017]; 27(101): 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



Harvard Style

Burcu BERKE (2016) [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



Turabian Style

Burcu BERKE. 2016. [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



Chicago Style

Burcu BERKE. "[An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27 (2016), 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Burcu BERKE. "[An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27.101 (2016), 1-29. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Burcu BERKE (2016) [An Analysis of Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate on Axis of the Capital Flows Volatility in Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 1-29. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35943



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