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The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?

Değer Eryar.

Abstract
One of Turkey’s main aspirations for EU membership has been to attain the economic development level of the member countries. In this context, the Turkish economy has undergone profound changes both in its economic structure, and the degree of integration with the world economy, particularly that of the EU. This article focuses on three major dynamics of the current account adjustment (degree and character of financial integration, savings-investment balance, and the competitiveness and the structure of the exports) in order to shed light on why the predictions of standard economic theory do not fully account for the observed relationship between Turkey’s convergence process and its current account structure. Accordingly, current account deficit appears to be a permanent feature of the Turkish economy rather than a temporary situation during the convergence process as is predicted by the theory and experienced by the new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). One of the primary findings of this article suggests that the insufficient level of FDI, low level of savings and the lack of competitiveness in high-value added exports seem to keep current account deficit as a permanent feature of the economy. One common factor affecting the above dynamics seems to be some of the structural features of the Turkish labor force, such as low levels of education and low female labor force participation rate, which also place Turkey into a different category than the rest of the CEE countries.

Key words: Keywords: Convergence, Current account deficit, Turkey, European Economic Integration, CEE countries, Labor market. JEL Codes: F32, O47, O52



Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye: Kalıcı bir cari açık tuzağına düşmeden yakınsama mümkün mü?

Özet
Türkiye’nin AB’ye üye olmaya çalışmasının temel amaçlarından biri üye ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeyine erişmek olmuştur. Bu bağlamda Türkiye hem kendi ekonomik yapısında hem de ülkenin küresel bütünleşmesinde önemli değişiklikler geçirmiştir. Standart iktisat kuramının öngördükleri ile Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği ile yakınsama sürecinde gözlemlenen cari açık değişiklikleri uyuşmamaktadır. Bu makalede cari açık dinamiğinin üç boyutuna (uluslararası finansal bütünleşmenin düzeyi ve karakteri, tasarruf-yatırım dengesi ve ihracatın yapısı ile rekabetçiliği) odaklanılarak yukarıda bahsedilen uyuşmazlık incelenmektedir. Buna göre, yakınsama kuramlarının öngörülerinden ve Orta ve Doğu Avrupa’daki yeni üye ülkelerin çoğunun yaşadıklarından farklı olarak, Türkiye’nin cari açığı yakınsamayla azalmamakta, tam tersine artış göstermektedir. Bu makalenin temel bulgularından bir tanesi Türkiye’nin yeteri derecede doğrudan yatırım çekememesi, tasarruflarının düşük olması ve yüksek katma değerli ihracat yapısına sahip olamamasının cari açığı kalıcı hale getirdiğidir. Bir başka sonuç ise, Türkiye’yi Orta ve Doğu Avrupa’daki yeni üye ülkelerinden ayrıştıran düşük eğitim düzeyi ve kadınların işgücüne yetersiz katılımı gibi özelliklerinin, yukarıdaki dinamikleri olumsuz etkileyerek cari açığın kalıcı hale gelmesinde önemli rol oynamasıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Anahtar Kelimeler: Yakınsama, Cari Açık, Türkiye, Avrupa Ekonomik Bütünleşmesi, Orta ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri, İşgücü Piyasaları. JEL Koları:F32, O47, O52.


 
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Deger Eryar. The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



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Deger Eryar. The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. www.scopemed.org/?mno=225280 [Access: June 29, 2017]. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Deger Eryar. The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Deger Eryar. The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2016), [cited June 29, 2017]; 27(101): 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



Harvard Style

Deger Eryar (2016) The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



Turabian Style

Deger Eryar. 2016. The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



Chicago Style

Deger Eryar. "The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27 (2016), 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Deger Eryar. "The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27.101 (2016), 295-314. Print. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Deger Eryar (2016) The EU and Turkey: How to converge without falling into the trap of permanent deficit?. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 295-314. doi:10.5455/ey.35946



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