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Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study

Ozan Eruygur, Selin zokcu.

Abstract
In this study, the impacts of climate related variables such as temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation on wheat yield are estimated by using a regional panel data (NUTS2) for Turkey. The estimated coefficients are used to simulate the impacts of climate change on wheat yield in Turkey until 2100. The humidty coefficient (nks) of Aydeniz climate classification, July Maximum Temperature and August Maximum Temperature are also used in the estimations. The regional effects (for seven regions of Turkey) are estimated separately for each decade. Apart from point estimation, the upper and lower bounds of the estimations are also provided. The "average scenario" points out a decline of about 8% in the wheat yields. In the "worst scenario" the decline enlarges to about 23%. However, the "best scenario" based on the statistically significant lower bound estimation values shows only a 1% of decline in the wheat yields of Turkey. This large interval can be explained by the high varance of the estimations and long forecasting period until 2100. In the study, to take into account the non-stationarity of variables and cross-sectional dependence of panel data, the heterogenus panel data estimation method of AMG (Augmented Mean Group Estimator) is preferred. The AMG estimator of Eberhardt is robust to the cross-sectional dependence of panel series. We argue that this feature makes AMG a good estimator for climate change estimations based on panel data. The residuals of Fixed Effect, Random Effect, FGLS and PCSE estimators are found to be non-stationary pointing unhealthy estimations results.

Key words: Turkey, Climate Change, Wheat Yield, Panel Data, Heterogeneous Panel, Augmented Mean Group estimator, AMG, Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator, CCEMG. JEL Codes: Q54, Q10, C23.



Trkiyede klim Deiikliinin Buday Verimi zerine Etkileri: Bir Heterojen Panel almas

Özet
Bu almada, buday veriminin scaklk, maksimum scaklk, ya, gnelenme gibi iklimsel deikenlerle olan ilikisi blgesel veriler kullanlarak ekonometrik yntemlerle tahmin edilmi ve sonrasnda iklim deiikliinin lkemiz buday verimi zerindeki etkileri kestirilmitir. Aydeniz iklim snflamasnda hesaplanan nemlilik katsays (nks), Temmuz Maksimum Scaklk ve Austos Maksimum Scaklk deikenleri modelde kullanlmtr. Ortalama senaryoda 2100 ylna gelindiinde yedi blgede buday veriminde ortalama olarak %8 civarnda bir dme yaanaca tahmin edilmektedir. Dier taraftan en kt senaryoda 2100 ylnda buday veriminde ortalama olarak %23 civarnda bir dme kestirilmektedir. Dolaysyla azalmann istatistiksel olarak anlaml st snr %23ler civarndadr. Dier taraftan istatistiksel olarak anlaml alt snr en iyi senaryoda %1lere kadar debilmektedir. Bu durum tahmin sonularnn varyanslarnn yksek olmasyla aklanabilir. almada "Geniletilmi Ortalama Grup tahmincisi (AMG) kullanlmtr. AMG tahmincisi yatay kesitler arasnda bant olmasna direnli bir tahmincidir. Bu zelliiyle iklim deiiklii konusunda zellikle karlalan bir soruna zm getirmektedir. Ayrca iklim deiikliini tahmin ederken kullanlan veri setindeki zaman boyutunun da uzun olmas iklim deiikliine ilikin zaman iindeki deiimleri yakalayabilmek asndan nemlidir. Ancak zaman boyutu arttka verilerde duraan-olmama problemi ortaya kmakta ve bu durum dikkate alnmadnda hatal tahminler yaplabilmektedir. almada temel alnan AMG tahmincisi duraan-olmama durumlarnda da etkin olan bir tahmincidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Trkiye, klim Deiiklii, Buday Verimi, Panel Veri, Heterojen Panel, Geniletilmi Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi, AMG, Ortak Bantl Etkiler Ortalama Grup tahmincisi, CCEMG. JEL Kodlar: Q54, Q10, C23.


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Eruygur O, Ozokcu S. [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944


Web Style

Eruygur O, Ozokcu S. [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=238210 [Access: December 17, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Eruygur O, Ozokcu S. [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2016; 27(101): 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Eruygur O, Ozokcu S. [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2016), [cited December 17, 2017]; 27(101): 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



Harvard Style

Eruygur, O. & Ozokcu, S. (2016) [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



Turabian Style

Eruygur, Ozan, and Selin Ozokcu. 2016. [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



Chicago Style

Eruygur, Ozan, and Selin Ozokcu. "[Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27 (2016), 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Eruygur, Ozan, and Selin Ozokcu. "[Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 27.101 (2016), 219-255. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Eruygur, O. & Ozokcu, S. (2016) [Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in Turkey: A Heterogeneous Panel Study]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 27 (101), 219-255. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.35944



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