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The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey

Sevda Akar, Evren İpek.

Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the impacts of terrorist attacks on economic and fiscal variables by utilizing ARIMA model which includes dummy variables. Analyses are carried out with quarterly series related to Turkish economy and the data set covers 1989:1–2015:4 periods. In empirical analyses, we consider the terrorist attacks, throughout the 1980-2014 periods of Turkey, in which the casualties are 101+, and we investigate the impacts of these terrorist attacks on a variety of economic variables namely the ratio of budget revenues to GDP, the ratio of budget balance to GDP, the ratio of budget expenditures to GDP, domestic debt stock, GDP, total export, total import, consumer price index, real effective exchange rate and output gap. The result of the study indicates that the budget revenues and import variables are most affected by the terrorist attacks

Key words: Terrorist Attacks, ARIMA Model, Turkish Economy. JEL Classification Codes: E60, H20, H56



Terörün Mali Ve Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Analizi

Özet
Bu çalışmada terör saldırılarının ekonomik ve mali değişkenler üzerindeki etkisi kukla değişken eklenmiş ARIMA modeli kullanılarak ampirik olarak analiz edilmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin üçer aylık verilerle analizlerin gerçekleştirildiği çalışmanın veri seti 1989:1–2015:4 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Ampirik analizlerde Türkiye’de 1980–2014 döneminde toplam kayıpların 101+ olduğu terör saldırıları ele alınarak, bu terör saldırılarının bütçe gelirlerinin GSYH’ya oranı, bütçe dengesinin GSYH’ya oranı, bütçe harcamalarının GSYH’ya oranı, iç borç stoku, GSYH, toplam ihracat, toplam ithalat, tüketici fiyat endeksi, reel efektif döviz kuru ve çıktı açığı gibi çeşitli iktisadi değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları terör olaylarından en fazla bütçe gelirlerinin ve ithalatın etkilendiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Terörist Saldırılar, ARIMA Modeli, Türkiye Ekonomisi. JEL Kodları: E60, H20, H56


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Akar S, Ipek E. [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2017; 28(102): 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



Web Style

Akar S, Ipek E. [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. www.scopemed.org/?mno=254057 [Access: November 19, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Akar S, Ipek E. [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2017; 28(102): 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Akar S, Ipek E. [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2017), [cited November 19, 2017]; 28(102): 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



Harvard Style

Akar, S. & Ipek, E. (2017) [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 28 (102), 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



Turabian Style

Akar, Sevda, and Evren Ipek. 2017. [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 28 (102), 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



Chicago Style

Akar, Sevda, and Evren Ipek. "[The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 28 (2017), 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Akar, Sevda, and Evren Ipek. "[The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 28.102 (2017), 65-85. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Akar, S. & Ipek, E. (2017) [The Economic and Fiscal Effects of Terrorism: The Analysis of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 28 (102), 65-85. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.36102



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The articles in Ekonomik Yaklaşım are open access articles licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the work is properly cited.