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Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey

Metin BAYRAK; Ömer ESEN.

Cited by (2)

Abstract
There are generally two different views that explain development process of Twin deficits. The first approach that tries to explain “Twin Deficits Hypothesis” is Conventional Keynesian Approach and the other one is Ricardian Equivalence Approach. While the Conventional Keynesian proposition claims that budget deficits led to current account deficits, on the other hand the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis claims that there is no relationship between the budget deficits and current account deficits. In this paper the relationship between foreign trade balance and current account balance is researched by using annual data for 1975 and 2010 periods in Turkey. In order to search the direction and size of the association between analyzed variables, Johansen cointegration and error correction model have been employed. The empirical findings of the study reveal that for the concerning period, it is found that there is a relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits in both the short and long run. These results support the Conventional Keynesian Theory and refuse the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis.

Key words: Twin Deficits, Current Account Balance, Budget Balance, Cointegration Analysis, Error Correction Model. JEL Classification: C53, F32, H62



BÜTÇE AÇIKLARININ CARİ İŞLEMLER DENGESİ ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: İKİZ AÇIKLAR HİPOTEZİNİN TÜRKİYE AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Özet
İkiz açıkların oluşma sürecini açıklayan genel olarak iki farklı görüş bulunmaktadır. “İkiz Açık Hipotezini” açıklamaya çalışan yaklaşımlardan ilki “Geleneksel Keynesyen Yaklaşımı”, diğeri ise “Ricardian Denkliği Yaklaşımı” dır. Geleneksel Keynesyen öngörü, bütçe açıklarının cari işlem açıklarına yol açacağını ileri sürerken, Ricardian denkliği hipotezi de bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasında her hangi bir ilişkinin olmadığını iddia eder. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bütçe dengesi ile cari işlemler dengesi arasındaki ilişki, 1975 ile 2010 dönemi arasında yıllık veriler kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Ele alınan değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğünü araştırmak üzere Johansen eşbütünleşme ve hata düzeltme modeli uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre, inceleme dönemi için, bütçe açıkları ile cari işlem açıkları arasında kısa ve uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, Geleneksel Keynesyen Yaklaşımı destekler ve Ricardian Denkliği Yaklaşımı reddeder yöndedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: İkiz Açıklar, Cari İşlem Dengesi, Bütçe Dengesi, Eşbütünleşme Analizi, Hata Düzeltme Modeli. JEL Sınıflaması: C53, F32, H62.


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

BAYRAK M, ESEN O. [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(82): 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001


Web Style

BAYRAK M, ESEN O. [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=34382 [Access: April 21, 2018]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

BAYRAK M, ESEN O. [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(82): 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

BAYRAK M, ESEN O. [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2012), [cited April 21, 2018]; 23(82): 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



Harvard Style

BAYRAK, M. & ESEN, O. (2012) [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (82), 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



Turabian Style

BAYRAK, Metin, and Omer ESEN. 2012. [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (82), 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



Chicago Style

BAYRAK, Metin, and Omer ESEN. "[Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23 (2012), 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

BAYRAK, Metin, and Omer ESEN. "[Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23.82 (2012), 23-49. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

BAYRAK, M. & ESEN, O. (2012) [Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (82), 23-49. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.20001





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    Yusuf Kurtoğlu
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2014; 25(90): 71-90
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.35313

  • Türkiye'de Bölgesel Ekonomik Aktivite: Yeni Ekonomik Coğrafya Yaklaşımı
    Regional Economic Activity in Turkey: A New Economic Geography Approach [English]
    Mehmet Burak TURGUT
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2014; 25(93): 39-63
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.35516

  • İLERİYE DÖNÜK YENİ KEYNESYEN PARA POLİTİKASI REAKSİYON FONKSİYONUNUN TAHMİNİ: TAYLOR KURALI’NIN, MCCALLUM KURALI’NIN, TAYLOR-MCCALLUM MELEZ KURALI’NIN TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE GEÇERLİLİĞİ
    Estimation of New Keynesian Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Availability of Taylor Rule, McCallum Rule and Hybrid Taylor-McCallum Rule in Turkish Economy [Turkish]
    Hakan Naim ARDOR, Serdar VARLIK
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2013; 24(89): 45-71
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.35302

  • TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN NAIRU TAHMİNİ
    NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy [Turkish]
    Özlem YİĞİT; Atilla GÖKÇE
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 69-91
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.34098

  • 1980’LERDEN KÜRESEL KRİZE DÜNYA EKONOMİSİ
    The World Economy from the 1980’s to the Global Crisis [Turkish]
    Tuba ONGUN
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(Special): 39-76
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.20007

  • Doğurganlık, İstihdam ve Sermaye Birikimi: Türkiye için Bir Analiz
    FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY [English]
    Şenay AÇIKGÖZ
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 1-36
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.34096

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    English Title Not Available [Turkish Title: EV SAHiBi ÜLKE AÇISINDAN YABANCI SERMAYE YATIRIMLARINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER VE TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA] [Turkish]
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    Jülide Yıldırım Öcal, Nadir Öcal
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    GCC PETRODOLLAR SURPLUSES AND THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE [English]
    Shawkat HAMMOUDEH, Ramazan SARI, Eisa ALESIA
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2009; 20(73): 39-54
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.10695
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  • Türkiye’de Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi: Toplumsal Cinsiyetçi Bir Yaklaşım
    THE INDIVIDUAL PENSION SYSTEM IN TURKEY: A GENDERED PERSPECTIVE [English]
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    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.20039
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    Alparslan AKÇORAOĞLU
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(77): 101-114
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.20038
    Cited : 2 times [Click to see citing articles]

  • Türkiye'de Bölgesel Ekonomik Aktivite: Yeni Ekonomik Coğrafya Yaklaşımı
    Regional Economic Activity in Turkey: A New Economic Geography Approach [English]
    Mehmet Burak TURGUT
    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2014; 25(93): 39-63
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.35516
    Cited : 2 times [Click to see citing articles]

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    Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(82): 23-49
    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.20001
    Cited : 2 times [Click to see citing articles]

  • İhracatta Çeşitlenme: Türkiye’nin Yoğun ve Yaygın Marjları
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    Seda EKMEN, Güzin ERLAT
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    » Abstract & References » doi: 10.5455/ey.35201
    Cited : 2 times [Click to see citing articles]