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NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy

Özlem YİĞİT; Atilla GÖKÇE.

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to estimate NAIRU for the Turkish economy using the structural VAR method. NAIRU is defined as the part of the measured unemployment rate unrelated with inflation in the long run. The estimates are obtained by applying the bivariate VAR model to quarterly data on unemployment rate and the consumer price index for the period from 1989:01 to 2011:01. In this study, NAIRU shocks and inflation shocks are defined as two types of structural shocks and the shocks are separated from each other by their effects on inflation. According to the findings of the study, NAIRU is observed to be gradually rising in parallel to the economic and social transformation in Turkey between 1989 and 2011. In addition, NAIRU is observed as more volatile during economic crisis experienced in the period 1989-2001 compared to that of the period 2002-2008 in which the more stable growth rates were observed. NAIRU is estimated at an average of 8.4% between the years 1989 and 2001 and at an average of 9.6% from 2002 until the second quarter of 2008. NAIRU is estimated at the average 12.50% after the third quarter of 2008. An estimated rate for the first quarter of 2011 is 10.75%.

Key words: NAIRU, Unemployment, Unemployment Gap, Hysteresis, SVAR. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E24.



TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN NAIRU TAHMİNİ

Özet
Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye ekonomisi için Yapısal VAR yöntemi kullanılarak NAIRU tahmini elde etmektir. NAIRU, ölçülen işsizlik oranının uzun dönemde enflasyonla ilişkisiz kısmı olarak tanımlanmıştır. 1998:01-2011:01 dönemine ait üç aylık işsizlik oranı ve tüketici fiyatları endeksi verileri kullanılarak iki değişkenli bir VAR modeli tahmin edilmiştir. NAIRU şoku ve enflasyon şoku olmak üzere iki tip yapısal şok tanımlanan çalışmada, şoklar birbirlerinden enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri itibariyle ayrılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre 1989-2011 dönemleri arasında Türkiye’de yaşanan iktisadi ve sosyal dönüşüme paralel olarak NAIRU’nun giderek yükseldiği belirlenmiştir. Ek olarak iktisadi krizlerin yaşandığı 1989-2001 yılları arasındaki NAIRU’nun, nispeten daha istikrarlı büyüme oranlarının gözlendiği 2002-2008 dönemine göre daha değişken olduğu belirlenmiştir. 1989-2001 yılları arasında ortalama %8.4 olarak tahmin edilen NAIRU, 2002’den 2008 ikinci çeyreğe kadar olan dönemde ortalama % 9.6 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 üçüncü çeyrekten sonra ise NAIRU ortalama %12.50 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. 2011 ilk çeyrek tahmini ise %10.75’tir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: NAIRU, İşsizlik, İşsizlik Açığı, Histerezis, SVAR. JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, C51, E24.


 
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YIGIT O, GOKCE A. [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



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YIGIT O, GOKCE A. [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. www.scopemed.org/?mno=34185 [Access: November 19, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



AMA (American Medical Association) Style

YIGIT O, GOKCE A. [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

YIGIT O, GOKCE A. [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2012), [cited November 19, 2017]; 23(83): 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



Harvard Style

YIGIT, O. & GOKCE, A. (2012) [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



Turabian Style

YIGIT, Ozlem, and Atilla GOKCE. 2012. [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



Chicago Style

YIGIT, Ozlem, and Atilla GOKCE. "[NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23 (2012), 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

YIGIT, Ozlem, and Atilla GOKCE. "[NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23.83 (2012), 69-91. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

YIGIT, O. & GOKCE, A. (2012) [NAIRU Estimation for the Turkish Economy]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 69-91. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.34098



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