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ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9

Oktar TÜREL.

Abstract
The currency and banking crises which the Turkish economy faced in the last sixteen years are generally attributed to financial and fiscal fragilities, typical of developing countries with liberalised capital accounts. Although the sudden stops and reversals in capital flows seem to be the common factor underlying crises of that kind, the three cases analysed in the text took place at different international and domestic conjunctures and were unfolded in different policy environments. In the international context, the volume, composition and degree of volatility of capital flows made a major impact on the severity and evolution of the crises. In the context of the national economy, not only diverse exchange rate arrangements and demand management policies, but also the changing emphases on institutional issues put their imprint on the actual course of events. The paper starts with definitions, explanations and stylised facts about currency and banking crises. It later goes into exploring the behaviour of the relevant indicators (i.e. those related to balance of payments, finance and public sector accounts) in Turkey over the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods in each of the crises concerned. The possibility of using some of these indicators as advance warning signals is also discussed. The last three crises in the Turkish economy were not simply the outcomes of policy mistakes committed by Turkey alone, but were also highly influenced by systemic features of the world economy working under neoliberal principles. The fact that the Turkish governments since the capital account liberalisation have been either unable or unwilling to monitor the transmission mechanisms of international shocks into the domestic economy suggests that currency and banking crises in Turkey are likely to recur over the medium term.

Key words: Currency Crises, Banking Crises, Solvency and Liquidity, International Capital Movements, Current Account Balance, Real Exchange Rates



TÜRKİYE’DE 1994, 2001 VE 2008-9 EKONOMİK KRİZLERİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ

Özet
Türkiye ekonomisinin son onaltı yılda karşılaştığı para ve bankacılık krizleri, sermaye hesabını serbestleştirmiş bazı gelişmekte olan ülkeler (GOÜ)’deki finansal ve fiskal kırılganlığa atfedilen krizler bağlamında mütalaa edilmektedir. Spekülatif sermaye hareketlerindeki ani yön ve hacim değişiklikleri Türkiye’nin üç krizinde ortak ve tetikleyici öğe olarak gözlenmekle birlikte, söz konusu üç kriz, uluslararası ve ulusal ortam ve koşullar açısından farklılıklar göstermektedir. Uluslararası planda, sermaye akımlarının hacim, bileşim ve oynaklığı, yerel krizin evrimini ve şiddetini etkilemektedir. Her üç krizde, kur ve talep idaresi politikalarının uygulanma biçimi ile kurumsal yapılanmaya verilen önem ve öncelikler değişmiştir. Yazıda ilkin GOܒdeki para ve bankacılık krizleri ile ilgili tanım, gözlem ve açıklamalar sunulmakta, daha sonra ödemeler dengesi, finans ve kamu maliyesi alanlarından seçilmiş göstergelerin, kriz öncesinde, kriz süresinde ve kriz sonrasında nasıl davrandığı sergilenmekte, hangi oran ve/veya parametrelerden öncü göstergeler olarak yararlanılabileceği tartışılmaktadır. Türkiye’nin yaşadığı son üç kriz, sadece Türkiye’nin iktisat politikası hatalarından değil, uluslararası ekonomik düzenin işleyişiyle ilgili, sistemik nedenlerden de kaynaklanmaktadır. Hükümetlerin dış şokları ülkeye taşıyan aktarım mekanizmaları üzerinde etkili olabilecek önlemler almaktan kaçınmaları, bu tür krizlerin orta vadede yinelenebileceğini düşündürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Para Krizleri, Bankacılık Krizleri, Borç Ödeyebilirlik ve Likidite, Uluslararası Sermaye Hareketleri, Cari İşlemler Dengesi, Reel Kur


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Web Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. www.scopemed.org/?mno=156120 [Access: June 29, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Oktar TUREL. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2010), [cited June 29, 2017]; 21(75): 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Harvard Style

Oktar TUREL (2010) [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Turabian Style

Oktar TUREL. 2010. [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



Chicago Style

Oktar TUREL. "[ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21 (2010), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Oktar TUREL. "[ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21.75 (2010), 27-75. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Oktar TUREL (2010) [ECONOMIC CRISES IN TURKEY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FAILURES IN 1994, 2001 AND 2008-9]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 27-75. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10704



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