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THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS

Aziz KONUKMAN, Rahmi Akn TREL.

Abstract
In order to properly analyze the economic effects of the global crisis on Turkey, it is necessary to touch on the nature and the salient features of the economic structure of the Turkish economy, that had already been facing some serious problems prior to the economic crisis. Problems, which however, have been largely disguised by IMF supported policies that were being implemented in an environment of high global-liquidity. Export/import and growth data indicate as is also true with other countries except PRC, in Turkey too that, the rapid contraction following September 2008 stemmed from the severe declines in aggregate demand in domestic and export markets. Since contractions --albeit at a much lesser rate-- are forecast for 2009 in Turkeys main export-markets, it is reasonable to attempt to trigger an upturn by increasing government expenditures and in particular social-overhead investments on the one hand and by stimulating consumption expenditures on the other. Though this will inevitably result in increases in the public deficit, the domestic debt service ratio and so is likely to jack-up inflationary expectations and/or the nominal interest rates, such undesirable consequences can be effectively addressed in the medium/long run by designing auspicious development and industrialization strategies and by implementing the policies these would call-for.

Key words: Economic Crisis, Industrialization, Technology, Macroeconomic Policy, Industrial Policy, Turkish Economy



KRZN TRKYE EKONOMSNE YANSIMALARI VE GELECEE LKN DNCELER

Özet
Kresel ekonomik krizin Trkiye ekonomisine olan etkilerinin salkl olarak incelenebilmesi iin ncelikle kriz-ncesi ekonomik yapnn zet bir analizi yaplm ve ekonominin zaten kriz-ncesinde de ciddi sorunlarla kar-karya olduu; ama uluslararas likiditenin bol olduu bir konjonktrde IMF programlar erevesinde yaplan uygulamalarn Trkiye ekonomisinin bu sorunlarnn gz ard edilmesine neden olduu sonucuna varlmtr. 2008 ylnn Eyll ayndan itibaren nc gstergeler ve ihracat verilerinde gzlenen hzl daralmann hem yurtii hem d-talep kaynakl olduu grlmektedir. Trkiyenin, d ticaretinin nemli bir ksmn gerekletirdii lke ekonomilerinde daralma ngrleri nda, bir taraftan kamu harcamalarn arttrrken, dier taraftan zel tketim harcamalarnn uyarlmasyla yurtii talebin artmasn salayacak politikalar izlenmesinin, krizden k hzlandrmak asndan uygun bir zm olduu kansndayz. Bunun; kamu-a, bor stoku ve bor servis oran gibi gstergelerde bozulmalara neden olmas ve dolaysyla enflasyon ve/veya nominal faizlerde yukar istikamette bir bask yaratmas gibi olumsuzluklar dourmas kanlmaz olabilir. Bu gibi sorunlarn, zaten Trkiyenin ihtiya duyduu kapsaml ve dengeli bir kalknma ve sanayileme stratejisinin uygulanmas ve dolaysyla gerekli yapsal deiikliklerin de gerekletirilmesi sayesinde orta/uzun vadede ve kalc olarak zlmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomik Kriz, Sanayileme, Teknoloji, Makroekonomik Politika, Sanayileme Politikas, Trkiye Ekonomisi


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

KONUKMAN A, TURELI RA. [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705


Web Style

KONUKMAN A, TURELI RA. [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=156121 [Access: December 17, 2017]. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705


AMA (American Medical Association) Style

KONUKMAN A, TURELI RA. [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2010; 21(75): 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



Vancouver/ICMJE Style

KONUKMAN A, TURELI RA. [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2010), [cited December 17, 2017]; 21(75): 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



Harvard Style

KONUKMAN, A. & TURELI, R. A. (2010) [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



Turabian Style

KONUKMAN, Aziz, and Rahmi Askin TURELI. 2010. [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



Chicago Style

KONUKMAN, Aziz, and Rahmi Askin TURELI. "[THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21 (2010), 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

KONUKMAN, Aziz, and Rahmi Askin TURELI. "[THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]." Ekonomik Yaklasim 21.75 (2010), 77-122. Print.Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



APA (American Psychological Association) Style

KONUKMAN, A. & TURELI, R. A. (2010) [THE REFLECTIONS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TURKISH ECONOMY AND THE FUTURE PROSPECTS]. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 21 (75), 77-122. Turkish. doi:10.5455/ey.10705



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