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Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 1-36

doi: 10.5455/ey.34096

FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY

�enay A�IKG�Z.

Abstract
<i></i>In the last two decades Turkish fertility rates have been steadily decreasing. This paper is an attempt to examine the effects of a change in fertility rates on population structure, labor supply, and employment in relation to physical capital stock for the next four decades. This study also evaluates the effects of a possible reversal change in fertility rates on the variables mentioned above. The study is carried out in three stages. In the first stage, population of Turkey is projected with Leslie matrix defined by age-specific fertility rates and survival rates. Projections are repeated for different fertility rates. In the second stage, physical capital stock per employed person is forecasted using time series data. In the third stage, the predictions obtained through the first two stages are combined. Thus, the question of what should be the warranted growth rates of physical capital stock in order to employ labor force projected under different fertility rates is answered. According to the results, increases in fertility rates lead to an increase in labor supply with a 15 year lag, even if fertility rates have remained unchanged in their current level. The physical capital stock growth rate that is necessary for the employment of the extra labor supply emanating from an increase in fertility rates is found to be at least 5 %. This was higher than the actual growth rate of physical capital stock realized in the last decade which was approximately 4 %.

Key words: Matrix population model, Leslie matrix, fertility, employment and physical capital stock. JEL Classification: J11, J21, C02, C22.

Do�urganl�k, �stihdam ve Sermaye Birikimi: T�rkiye i�in Bir Analiz

Özet
T�rkiye�de do�urganl�k oranlar� son yirmi y�lda istikrarl� bir bi�imde azalma g�stermi�tir. Bu �al��mada do�urganl�k oranlar�ndaki de�i�melerin n�fus yap�s�, i�g�c� arz� ve fiziki sermaye stoku �er�evesinde istihdam �zerindeki etkileri �n�m�zdeki k�rk y�l i�in incelenmi�tir. Bu �al��ma do�urganl�k oranlar�nda olas� tersine bir geli�menin s�z� edilen de�i�kenler �zerindeki etkisini de incelemektedir. �al��ma �� a�amada ger�ekle�tirilmi�tir. �lk a�amada, T�rkiye n�fusu ya� s�n�flar�na g�re do�urganl�k oranlar� ve hayatta kalma oranlar� ile tan�mlanan Leslie matrisi arac�l��yla �ng�r�lm��t�r. �ng�r�ler farkl� do�urganl�k oranlar� i�in tekrarlanm��t�r. �kinci a�amada, �al��an ba��na fiziki sermaye stoku zaman serisi verileri ile �ng�r�lm��t�r. ��nc� a�amada, ilk iki a�amada elde edilen �ng�r�ler birle�tirilmi�tir. B�ylece farkl� do�urganl�k oranlar� alt�nda �ng�r�len i�g�c� arz�n� istihdam edebilmek i�in gerekli sermaye birikimi art�� h�z� ne olmal�d�r sorusu cevaplanm��t�r. Analiz sonu�lar�na g�re do�urganl�k oranlar� mevcut d�zeyinde kalsa da istihdam a��s�ndan as�l etki yakla��k on be� y�l sonra ortaya ��kmakta ve artan i�g�c� arz�n� istihdam etmek i�in gerekli sermaye birikimi y�ll�k ortalama art�� h�z�n�n en az y�zde 5 d�zeyinde olmas� gerekmektedir. �ng�r�len bu de�er incelenen d�nemde ger�ekle�en sermaye birikimi art�� h�z�ndan (yakla��k y�zde 4) daha b�y�kt�r.

Anahtar Kelimeler: N�fus �ng�r� modeli, Leslie matrisi, do�urganl�k, istihdam ve fiziki sermaye stoku. JEL S�n�flamas�: J11, J21, C02, C22.

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How to Cite this Article

Pubmed Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

Web Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. http://www.ekonomikyaklasim.org/?mno=34096 [Access: June 19, 2018]. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim. 2012; 23(83): 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim. (2012), [cited June 19, 2018]; 23(83): 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

Harvard Style

Senay ACIKGOZ (2012) FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

Turabian Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. 2012. FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

Chicago Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. "FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23 (2012), 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Senay ACIKGOZ. "FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY." Ekonomik Yaklasim 23.83 (2012), 1-36. Print. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Senay ACIKGOZ (2012) FERTILITY, EMPLOYMENT AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 23 (83), 1-36. doi:10.5455/ey.34096

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